...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible from the middle Mississippi Valley south into the Arklatex today. Additional daytime storms, capable of producing hail, gusty winds, and a couple of tornadoes, will also be possible into parts of the central Plains.
...Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Arklatex/East Texas...
A negatively tilted upper-level trough will move northeastward from the southern Plains into the central Plains today. At the surface, a low will move across Kansas as a warm front advances northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. A surface trough is forecast from the surface low extending south-south eastward into eastern
Oklahoma, along which thunderstorms will be ongoing this morning. This line of storms will move eastward into Missouri and Arkansas by early afternoon. As surface temperatures warm ahead of the line, a corridor of instability will strengthen with the NAM increasing MLCAPE values into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. This combined with a north-to-south band of large-scale ascent ahead of the upper-level
trough and strong low-level shear will be favorable for squall line development. The squall line will move eastward across Missouri and Arkansas reaching the Mississippi River during the evening. A few QLCS tornadoes and widespread damaging wind gusts will be likely with the stronger parts of the squall line.
The southern portion of the squall line is forecast to be located from the Arklatex into east Texas this afternoon. Large-scale ascent is forecast to be considerably less this far south with the much weaker low-level flow. For this reason, the wind-damage threat should be more isolated with southward extent.
...Central Plains...
An upper-level low will move northward across the central Plains today. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across western Kansas. Along and ahead of this front, thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon. Warming surface temperatures should result in destabilization along a corridor of maximized low-level moisture extending northwestward across southeast and
central Kansas. Enhanced lift associated with the exit region of the mid-level jet, strong deep-layer shear and strengthening low-level shear will be sufficient for rotating storms along the instability axis. Isolated large hail, strong gusty winds and a tornado or two will be possible mainly in the late afternoon.
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